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Outlook

Our views on the economy, markets, and broad investment opportunities.


Contextual data:

Investing begins with an analysis of domestic and global economic trends.

Global Economic Indicator

US Economic Indicator

Outlooks and Opportunities:

Our most recent global outlook of trends.

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Ideas and Commentary:

Our analysis of current events, economics, and investment opportunities.


Methodology:

How we conduct our analysis

No model can perfectly predict the future. That’s why we use a probabilistic approach which incorporates both economic and market analysis to develop views about the world. With those views in place, we can then do the real work—testing, measuring, and comparing them in order to maintain a dynamic and holistic perspective.

Economic Performance

We determine the economic performance of countries by analyzing leading, lagging, and coincident economic indicators. This analysis helps us evaluate economic growth forecasts published by leading institutions. Countries with a high degree of economic performance are considered to be more likely to meet or exceed growth forecasts and vice versa.

Equity Market Returns

We use an adjusted economic growth forecast and the Gordon Growth Model to develop “base-case” equity returns for each country we cover.

Interest Rates

We analyze inflation differentials on 2-year sovereign bonds to determine which countries are paying more or less interest today in real terms.

Currencies

Our “base-case” view on currencies incorporates economic theory (International Fishers Effect) and market forecasts.


NOTE: SPEAK WITH A FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS ON OUR WEBSITE REPRESENTS OUR OPINION AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AS THE BASIS OF ANY TRADING OR INVESTMENT DECISION WITHOUT FIRST CONSULTING A PROFESSIONAL